Today I am interested in determining the impact of teen births and percent Blacks in labor markets on the chances of achieving greater than median levels of relative mobility.
Research Questions:
- After controlling for percent Black population in labor markets, does the proportion of teen births in the labor market reduce the probability of relative economic mobility?
- After controlling for the proportion of teen births in the labor market, does the percent of Blacks in the labor market reduce the probability of relative economic mobility?
Dataset: I exploit Chetty et al. (2013) dataset: The Economic Impacts of Tax Expenditures: Evidence from Spatial Variation Across the U.S. The Equality of Opportunity Project.
Dependent Variable: Greater than Median Relative Mobility (greater_mobility). A binary variable where 1 = greater than median relative mobility, 0 = less than median relative mobility. This variable was created by me from Chetty’s dataset.
Predictor Variables:
- Fraction whose mother gave birth between ages 13 and 19 (f_teenbirth)
- Fraction of population black in commuter zone in 2000 (cs_race_bla)
Statistical Analysis: As the dependent variable is a categorical, binary variable the statistical tool of choice is logistic regression.
Findings:
Logistic Regression Output Image may be NSFW.
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The model is statistically significant as well as the two predictor variables. Pseudo R2 is relatively high for logistic regression analysis.
Using the margins command in Stata we can calculate the probability of greater than median relative mobility associated with the fraction of teen births, holding percent of black population constant. Plotting the results produces the following graph.
Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.
After controlling for percent Black population I find as the fraction of teen births increase in a labor market, the probability of “Greater than Median Relative Mobility” decreases. {The vertical lines along the probability curve represent confidence intervals.)
The following graph demonstrates the percent Black population in a labor market appears to have a greater adverse impact on relative mobility.
Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.
The probability curve drops sharply to very low probabilities of achieving greater than median relative mobility.
Conclusion: Teen births and percent Blacks in labor markets jointly and independently impact the probability of achieving greater than median relative mobility. Percent Blacks appears to have a much greater adverse association with relative mobility.
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